A stunning new poll out of Virginia is shaking up the state’s political landscape just weeks before Election Day. According to a survey conducted by The Trafalgar Group between October 8 and 10, Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares now leads Democratic challenger Jay Jones 49% to 43%, marking a dramatic reversal in a race that once leaned Democrat. The turnaround follows the explosive revelation of 2022 text messages in which Jones allegedly fantasized about shooting a Republican lawmaker and his family — a scandal that has dominated headlines and sent shockwaves through Virginia’s political establishment.
The texts, first leaked to local media earlier this month, reportedly show Jones discussing violent fantasies against GOP House Speaker Todd Gilbert after Democrats lost control of the legislature two years ago. In one exchange, he allegedly wrote about “putting two bullets in his head” and “watching his family suffer.” The disturbing comments, verified by multiple outlets, have prompted bipartisan condemnation and calls for Jones to suspend his campaign immediately.
As the scandal unfolded, Jason Miyares — the state’s first Hispanic attorney general and a rising Republican star — wasted no time refocusing his campaign on leadership, accountability, and restoring public trust. Speaking to voters during a town hall in Richmond, Miyares said, “Virginia deserves leaders who uphold justice, not ones who joke about violence. We stand for law, order, and respect — not rage and revenge.” The crowd erupted in applause, underscoring how deeply the controversy has resonated with voters frustrated by political double standards.
The new Trafalgar poll reflects that sentiment. Just two months ago, Jones held a slight advantage, buoyed by strong early fundraising and national Democratic backing. But the fallout from the leaked messages has eroded his support rapidly, especially among independents and suburban moderates who had previously leaned left. Analysts say the scandal could have ripple effects across the ballot, dragging down other Democrats in key races — including Governor Abigail Spanberger, who now holds only a slim 47.7% to 45.1% lead over Republican Winsome Sears.
Sears, a Marine veteran and former lieutenant governor, has been energizing conservative voters with her unapologetically patriotic message and close alignment with former President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies. Her momentum, combined with Miyares’ surge, is giving Republicans hope of a sweeping comeback in Virginia — a state that has trended blue in recent years but remains deeply divided.
Meanwhile, the Jones campaign has gone silent. Attempts by reporters to secure interviews or statements from the candidate have gone unanswered. Democratic officials in the state legislature have distanced themselves from him, calling his behavior “unacceptable” but stopping short of formally withdrawing their endorsement. GOP strategists argue that the Democratic Party’s hesitation only reinforces the perception of hypocrisy and weakness at a time when voters are demanding moral clarity.
Trump allies have seized on the scandal as proof that conservative values of law, accountability, and respect still resonate with ordinary Americans. “This is what happens when Democrats forget who they work for,” one senior Republican operative said. “People are tired of corruption, double standards, and threats. Virginians want real leaders again.”
The Miyares campaign has leaned into that message, highlighting the attorney general’s record on crime reduction, parental rights, and economic reform. His team released a new ad over the weekend featuring footage of Miyares meeting with first responders and pledging to “defend every Virginian’s right to safety and free expression.”
For many voters, the choice is now clearer than ever. The race that once looked like a toss-up has become a referendum on character and integrity — and Republicans are sensing opportunity. With polls tightening in both the attorney general and governor’s races, the momentum appears to be shifting decisively toward the GOP.
As Election Day draws near, one thing is certain: Virginia’s political winds have changed dramatically. What began as a routine campaign season has become a defining moment for a state once considered safely Democratic. Jason Miyares’ rise — and Jay Jones’ unraveling — could signal that Virginia is turning red again.
