Democrats nationwide have been urging their leaders to embrace a more assertive approach, and Newsom seems enthusiastic about assuming that responsibility. He has had numerous confrontations with Trump previously and now asserts that he can secure five additional Democratic seats in the House, countering the five that Republicans in Texas are attempting to obtain through mid-decade redistricting.
If he succeeds, this would not only benefit Democrats in Washington but also enhance Newsom’s status as a symbol of party resurgence. Even as his influence in Sacramento diminishes due to term limits, his national profile could expand considerably.
Newsom has even gone so far as to assert that flipping the House could effectively “end Trump’s presidency.” While this statement is not literally accurate, Democratic control of the chamber would undoubtedly complicate Trump’s agenda and provide a significant check on his authority.
However, Newsom’s strategy is fraught with genuine risks. Critics contend that his ultimatum has backfired, allowing Republicans time to regroup while California’s independent redistricting system has hindered his ability to act as swiftly as lawmakers in Texas. Rather than deterring Republicans, his actions may have exacerbated divisions and raised doubts about Democratic credibility.
The risks could extend beyond Texas. Should California attempt retaliation, other GOP-led states might follow suit, creating a conflict that Republicans are structurally better equipped to win.
Newsom also encounters skepticism within his own state. California voters predominantly trust the independent commission, and attempts to modify it could provoke backlash. Even former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger may oppose changes to the system.
If Newsom succeeds, Democrats could gain momentum as they approach the midterms. However, if he falters, Republicans could capitalize on the opportunity—detrimentally affecting both his party and his own political future.
