New Data Shows Virginia Republicans Expanding Early Voting Advantage Over Democrats as Turnout Momentum Grows Toward 2025
Fresh early voting data from Virginia suggests Republicans are maintaining and even expanding their lead in turnout over Democratic counties as the state heads toward its 2025 elections. The analysis, compiled by election expert Michael Pruser of Decision Desk HQ, shows Trump-won counties currently reaching 72.3% of their 2024 turnout levels, while Harris-won counties trail at 67.7%. That represents a 0.3-point increase in the Republican turnout advantage since the last update, signaling that the GOP base continues to show stronger enthusiasm as early ballots are cast.
The turnout pattern holds across both deep-red and deep-blue regions of Virginia, where Pruser’s data shows Trump-aligned counties at 72.5% of previous turnout levels compared to 66% in Democratic strongholds. While such differences may appear narrow, they carry significant implications in a state long seen as a bellwether for national political momentum. Virginia’s off-year elections often set the tone for both parties heading into larger national cycles — and early participation has become one of the clearest indicators of ground-level organization and voter motivation.
Political analysts point out that the numbers reflect a broader trend since 2020, where Republicans, once skeptical of early voting, have increasingly embraced it as part of their strategy. The shift was fueled by local party leaders and national voices urging GOP voters to match Democrats in early participation rather than relying solely on Election Day turnout. Virginia’s 133 localities have seen notable growth in early in-person voting this cycle, with turnout gaps between parties narrowing in some regions while widening in others depending on demographics and local engagement.
Pruser’s analysis, published with publicly accessible datasets through Google Sheets, emphasizes transparency and verifiability — a key aspect of modern election tracking. The data shows not only where Republicans are performing strongly but also highlights areas where Democratic turnout lags behind previous benchmarks. The report notes that, while both sides are active in voter mobilization, Republican areas continue to outperform expectations compared to their 2024 pace.
The conversation around turnout has also reignited political tensions following resurfaced remarks from Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones, who in 2021 apologized for an inappropriate joke about “shooting” then–Republican House Speaker Kirk Cox. The comment, made in jest at a public event, resurfaced on social media this week amid renewed partisan exchanges online. Jones has since reiterated that the remark was “a regrettable mistake” and “not reflective” of his conduct as a public servant. Still, some conservative commentators have referenced the comment while calling for continued Republican unity and turnout strength in response to what they describe as “a pattern of hostility” from certain Democratic figures.
Despite the controversy, the broader takeaway from the new data remains clear: Republican voters are mobilizing early and consistently. In several counties across southwest and central Virginia, early in-person voting has reached or surpassed 75% of 2024’s pace. Meanwhile, turnout in Northern Virginia’s Democratic-leaning regions, while steady, has not accelerated at the same rate, suggesting Republicans are currently running a more energized early ground game.
Observers note that it’s still early in the election cycle, and Democrats could easily rebound as mail-in ballots increase closer to Election Day. Party organizers in Harris-won regions have launched renewed outreach campaigns aimed at boosting turnout among younger voters and suburban residents. Still, the early numbers reinforce a theme that’s played out in multiple states since 2022: Republican voters are adapting quickly to early voting, transforming what was once seen as a Democratic advantage into a competitive front.
As both parties ramp up their efforts heading into the final stretch, Virginia’s early vote data continues to serve as a real-time gauge of enthusiasm and organization. Whether the current gap will widen or tighten remains to be seen, but for now, the numbers tell a clear story — Republicans are showing up, and they’re doing it early.
